I was reading hot takes on what will happen tomorrow when polls close and early election results are announced. Very few pundits have predicted a favorable result in a race in which I’ve become invested: Seattle City Council District 4 (D4).
It’s my home district and it also happens to represent the sharpest contrast of any Seattle council race. Alex Pedersen is a conservative blast-from-the-past law-and-order single-family zoning protectionist. Shaun Scott is an urbanist-endorsed socialist leading a rainbow coalition of struggling renters, queer folks, criminal justice reformers, and climate hawks under the umbrella of public housing, zoning reform, and a Seattle Green New Deal. Inspiring! The catch is few prognosticators think he can win. But should we be so sure? And should we treat this like any other race?
Is 2019 Seattle the same Seattle we knew four or eight years ago? The massive deluge of corporate spending led by Amazon is a headwind for progressives in this election, but one overlooked dynamic is the huge influx of renters in Seattle, especially in booming districts like D4, D6, and D7. The State’s April 2015 population estimate for Seattle was 662,400. Today we’ve almost certainly blasted past 750,000. In other words, Seattle has gained about 100,000 residents in four years and change.
I’ve written about how 2,000 apartments have been added in the Stone Way corridor in the last decade, and how the University District is also booming. I predict renters will turn out, stand up for the progressive vision for Seattle, and swing this election for candidates like Shaun Scott, Kshama Sawant, Dan Strauss, and Andrew Lewis who have a pro-renter, pro-housing-diversity vision for the city. If Scott is down seven points or less on Election night, he will pull out the victory with a progressive finishing kick-in late returns. That’s my punditry right there.
A Big Gap to Overcome
Of course, I get why the cast The Stranger assembled for their predictions didn’t want to bet on Shaun Scott–outside of Prism Washington’s Riall Johnson who did call a narrow Scott win. Alex Pedersen amassed a large lead in the August primary, securing 10,447 votes, which was 40%. In a crowded progressive field, Shaun Scott hauled in 23%–6,020 votes. Assuming primary voters stay where they’re at, Pedersen starts with a 4,427 vote lead over Scott. If you’re placing bets, it’s risky to call a comeback that dramatic. You can’t blame the skepticism when it comes to Scott’s chances. Nonetheless, it’s happened before (Kshama Sawant over Richard Conlin is the classic example in recent history) and there’s reason to think it’ll happen now.
This is going to be a high turnout election, relatively speaking. The 2019 Primary’s 25,886 ballots cast in D4 already exceeded the 2015 General’s 23,019. Rob Johnson won the 2015 general election with 11,808 votes, narrowly edging Michael Maddux. Pedersen cracking 10,000 in the primary is impressive, but we’re likely looking at a 30,000 vote election in D4, meaning lots of votes are still on the table. And that gets us to ground game.
