With seven house pick-ups and three in the senate, 2018 was a really good year for Democrats in Washington state. While some speculated Democrats had neared their ceiling, 2020 could continue the onslaught and ensure a path forward for big progressive priorities: major housing investment, a clean fuels standard, a state Green New Deal, and a capital gains tax.
As it stands, the state senate sits at 28-21 advantage for Democrats and the state house is 57-41. The tipping point is 25 votes in the senate and 50 is the house. Thus, Democrats can withstand losing seven votes from its caucus and still pass legislation, but just four defections doom bills in the senate, which explains the failure to pass those aforementioned priorities during the last few sessions. The state senate will likely be where progressive legislation either lives or dies, but fortunately a further leftward swing seems inbound.
In the 28th District, The Urbanist endorsed T’wina Nobles, who appears poised to defeat Steve O’Ban, a Republican obsessed with dismantling Sound Transit. Nobles edged out O’Ban in the primary and has pulled in big name endorsements like Joe Biden’s and massive fundraising hauls.
Beyond the scope of our endorsements–which require legislative candidates to complete our questionnaire to guarantee eligibility–a handful more races could swing in progressives’ favor. With a weekend until Election Day, turnout out is already very high (already surpassing 50% in some counties) in our accessible mail-in ballot based system in Washington state. High turnout could be an X-factor this election, either propelling a Blue wave or actually helping Republicans hold on in some swing districts.
In the 10th District–which includes Whidbey Island and Mount Vernon–Island County Commissioner Helen Price Johnson is running a close race against incumbent Republican Ron Muzzall. The race seems a little under the radar compared to Nobles’ challenge to O’Ban, but Price Johnson is outraising Muzzall and trailed him by less than two points in the primary.
In the 5th District, Ingrid Anderson edged out conservative Democrat Mark Mullet in the primary election, and has continued to pile on big endorsements (like Governor Jay Inslee’s) and fundraising hauls. This has big implications because Mullet has helped block progressive tax reform, worker protections, and climate legislation despite the “D” next to his name. Anderson, meanwhile, is a registered nurse with strong backing from organized labor and a stridently progressive platform.
In the 17th District down in Clark County, incumbent Republican Lynda Wilson looked pretty solid in the primary with 55% of the vote, but Democratic challenger Daniel Smith could ride a blue wave, and has big endorsements like Inslee’s to latch himself to that momentum.
