A poll completed by Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) indicates plenty of reasons why supporters of progressive candidates in Seattle’s general election should be worried as election day approaches. Previously tight races have seemingly swung in favor of more conservative candidates if the poll is accurate, with some distinct trends related to age and gender emerging. Change Research estimates its poll has a modeled margin of error of 4.1% at the 95% confidence interval.
Harrell takes the lead in mayoral race
According to the poll, Seattle City Council President M. Lorena González is trailing former City Council President Bruce Harrell by 16% in the upcoming mayoral election. Harrell received strong support from older voters, as well as voters who identified as people of color.
Age emerged as the strongest determining factor in the poll results for the mayoral race with 66% of voters ages 65 and older saying they are voting for Harrell compared to 20% for González. However, younger voters did demonstrate a strong preference for González, with 49% of voters ages 18 to 34 supporting González and 30% supporting Harrell.
A strong margin of voters of color (56%) say they are voting for Harrell, while just 30% say they are voting for González. Twelve percent of voters of color say they are unsure who they will vote for. While respondents are asked to identify their race in the poll, because of the small sample population size, Change Research is unable to share data that gives a racial breakdown of results among people of color groups. They do, however, engage in targeted recruitment of poll respondents to ensure that the poll’s demographics are representative of the voting pubic in the study area.
In terms of gender, Harrell polled strongly with respondents who identify as male. Fifty-seven percent of male identified voters say they are voting for Harrell in comparison to 29% voting for González and the 12% who say they are unsure. Female identified respondents were much more likely to be unsure (25%), but Harrell did hold a lead in this group as well at 41% in comparison to 32% voting for González. While Change Research does allow people to identify as non-binary in the poll, not enough respondents identified as non-binary to produce accurate poll results.
