Yesterday, the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) released a poll that found challenger Katie Wilson had a slight lead over incumbent Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race. NPI’s May 2025 Civic Heartbeat survey of Seattle voters found 36% of respondents said they would vote for challenger Katie Wilson if the general election for mayor were being held today, while 33% would vote for incumbent Bruce Harrell, and 30% were not sure.
Harrell’s favorability ratings also continue to be underwater, with 42% of respondents expressing an unfavorable opinion of the mayor, 32% expressing a favorable opinion, and 27% neutral on his job performance.
Wilson’s campaign was quick to seize on the positive news in a press release, underscoring the momentum they’ve seen since she jumped in the race on March 12.
“In just two short months, our grassroots movement has surged ahead and taken the lead over an incumbent who once looked invincible,” Wilson said. “This poll confirms what so many of you have been telling me when we’re out tabling, at events, and in our neighborhoods: Seattle is ready for change. Only 37% of voters approve of the job Bruce Harrell is doing — and when people who are undecided hear about our vision, they move our way more than twice as often as they move toward him. That’s powerful.”
For prognosticators who had predicted Mayor Harrell would be a safe bet for reelection, the poll may have come as a jarring result. The mayor is effectively in a statistical tie despite winning his last election by a 17-point margin and consolidating some support among organized labor, including a recent MLK Labor Council endorsement.
The longtime leader of the Transit Riders Union, Wilson has been the architect of many high-profile initiatives, which run the gambit from expanding renter protections, making corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share amidst budget crunches, and raising the minimum wage in multiple cities. Wilson has also contributed articles for The Urbanist along the way.
While she has not held elected office before, Wilson’s resume that provides a sharp contrast with Harrell, who has generally worked from within the system as a moderate over his mayoral term and a 12-year run as a city councilmember.
Former Seattle City Council President Lorena González had also been a big name in 2021, but her bid came up well short. However, three and a half years of Harrell might be tempering voter enthusiasm, and his opponents have argued he has left a trail of broken campaign promises on key issues like housing, homelessness, and public safety in his wake.
An October 2021 poll by NPI showed Harrell resoundingly in the lead over González — albeit after months of ad spending, something that hasn’t yet hit the 2025 race.
“Our campaign is resonating because we’re talking about the real issues: skyrocketing rents, unaffordable child care, long commutes, and the urgent need to get people housed,” Wilson said. “Bruce Harrell has been in City Hall since 2008, and people just aren’t seeing results. It’s time for a mayor who puts everyday Seattleites first.”
Wilson granted that early polling can be faulty and the high number of undecided voters underscored much work remained for her campaign. Wilson invited Seattleites to a rally seeking to keep the campaign momentum going.
